With the pursuit of Mark Teixeira behind us, it is time for Red Sox Nation (and presumably the Red Sox FO) to focus on the holes in our lineup and filling out the rest of the roster. Despite losing out on big-name free agents (rather, losing out on Teixeira and not targeting other big-names), the Sox are still in a very good position and have plenty of money available to spend on... pretty much no one. The biggest question marks for the Sox are at catcher, starting pitching, fourth outfielder, and the bullpen (though that always seems to work itself out in the spring). I'll begin my "State of the Sox" series with the biggest current hole in the Sox lineup: catcher.
There are a myriad of possibilities to take over catching duties for the 2009 Red Sox. The most obvious solution would be the return of Jason Varitek, though the FO has entertained the possibility acquiring a young "catcher of the future." The problem with this is that the FO does not want to give up any respectable prospect, and any young, MLB-ready catcher with the "of the future" tag will not come cheap. Here are some of the potential solutions:
1. Jason Varitek. This is a no-brainer. Since being acquired for Heathcliff Slocumb years ago, Varitek has been a mainstay in the Sox lineup. He is the captain of the Sox and is the backbone of the club. There isn't a single catcher in the game who handles his pitching staff the way Varitek does. But Tek turns 37 in April and he just turned out his worst offensive season in his career: .220 - .313 - .359 - .672. As a die-hard Sox fan, I love Varitek and want him back. But I cannot advocate bringing him back as the full-time starter. I would love to have him back in a platoon, or to help teach the "tricks of the trade" to the new catcher we bring in, but he is such a huge hole in the lineup that his defense doesn't even come close to making up for it. I'm not sure that it would even be possible for Tek to post a line as bad as 2008, but he's clearly on the downside of his career and a sub-.700 OPS is what one would have to expect if he is the full-time catcher; as a big-market ballclub, that is unacceptable. The fortunate thing is that there is absolutely NO market for Tek because no team wants to give up the picks that a type A free agent requires. There is a chance the Mets sign Derek Lowe which would allow them to sign Varitek without having to give up picks, but I don't think the Mets would be able/willing to offer enough money to lure him out of Boston.
2. Ivan Rodriguez. I just don't see Pudge to the Sox happening. If we decide to bring in an old catcher on the decline, it's going to be Varitek. Pudge will probably demand the same or more money than Tek, and he just isn't a good fit for Boston. Tek knows the Boston pitching staff and he calls a game better than anyone. Even if he is not as good as Pudge offensively at this point, I would rather keep Tek in Boston than bring in someone entirely new who is on a similar decline. The only situation I can envision with Pudge ending up in a Sox uniform is if Tek signs somewhere else, which is beginning to seem unlikely.
3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Taylor Teagarden/Max Ramirez. This has been rumored since August. The Rangers were clogged at the catcher spot prior to moving Gerald Laird to Detroit. The Red Sox really like Teagarden and would be their top choice among the three because of his defensive ability and power potential. But now that the Rangers have moved Laird, it is rumored they prefer Teagarden for the short- and long-term because of the same reasons. It is unlikely Ramirez will be able to cut it defensively behind the dish; he will likely occupy the 1B/DH position. And as nice of a prospect as Salty is, he has huge holes in his swing and does not project to be strong enough defensively to make up for these holes. He may develop into an everyday catcher, but he is not the everyday solution we are currently looking for. The Rangers are looking for a top pitching prospect in return for Salty and the Sox have indicated that they will not be moving Buchholz, Bowden, or Masterson in a deal for him. It's unlikely the Rangers are going to move Teagarden at this point unless they are blown away (a.k.a. overpaid, something the Sox won't do), and Ramirez is not a fit at the catcher position.
4. Miguel Montero. It seems as though this is the deal that has gotten the most traction as of late. It was first rumored that the Sox offered Daniel Bard for Montero and got a counter-offer of Montero for Bowden; as mentioned above, the Sox are not looking to move any of their "Big Three" pitching prospects. The other scenario that has been mentioned is the Sox taking on the rest of Eric Byrnes' contract for the cash-strapped D'backs. Montero would be included with Byrnes, and the Sox would give up a lesser prospect. It would basically be a salary dump for the D'backs, who have little use for Montero with Chris Snyder establishing himself as the full-time catcher. I would take Montero on in a deal with Byrnes, as I think Byrnes would be a terrific fourth outfielder in Boston, but I would not give up Bowden for Montero. He simply has too many question marks. His offense is likely to be better than Tek's in 2008, with the potential to post an OPS in the mid-.700s, but that is nothing special for a guy who is average-to-below-average defensively. If we took him on in a Byrnes deal, I wouldn't mind pairing him up with Varitek for a year or two while we try and find a long-term solution behind the plate.
5. Kelly Shoppach. I really like the idea of bringing Shoppach back to Boston, but I just think he'll be too expensive. He is a good defensive catcher with a strong arm and good game-calling abilities. Is not a great hitter for average, but has above-average power for a catcher. The problem here is that the Indians have huge question marks at the C-1B-DH positions coming into the year. Victor Martinez is unlikely to be a full-time catcher - he'll likely spend a bulk of his time playing at 1B. Hafner is a huge question mark at the DH position, and it's likely Garko, Hafner, and VMart will split a lot of time at 1B-DH, with VMart being the back-up catcher when Shoppach needs a rest. Carlos Santana, the Indians top catching prospect (big-time offensive potential), isn't ready, so I do not see the Indians moving Shoppach any time soon.
6. Kenji Johjima. This has only been thrown out there as a potential fit, and the only way I see this happening is as a last-ditch move. I cannot see the Sox re-signing Tek and then bringing in Johjima. Johjima might be a decent option if we choose to promote from within (next section), but other than that, he just doesn't make any sense. The one thing he would be useful for is catching Tim Wakefield, but I don't think the Sox want to pay $5.2 million for Wakes' personal catcher when there's a good chance Dusty Brown could do just as well. The Red Sox do have plenty of available cash for the 2009 and 2010 season, but I doubt they would be willing to give up enough for the M's to just give Jeff Clement the starting gig.
7. Dusty Brown/George Kottaras. This has to be a worst-case scenario. If the Sox are unable to re-sign Tek and cannot put together a reasonable deal for any of the above catchers, it is likely the Sox will go into 2009 with a platoon of Dusty Brown and George Kottaras. As terrible as it sounds, I don't know if it would be much worse than what we had in 2008 - at least offensively. If used correctly, I could see these two combining for a .725-.775 OPS. Kottaras has pretty good power, solid on-base skills (though he Ks a lot), and is much better against righties than lefties; unfortunately, his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he would likely be considered a liability behind the dish. Brown, on the other hand, is an excellent defensive catcher - he really does everything above average. He has a fairly decent bat, especially against lefties, and has good patience at the dish. Kottaras would likely handle Wakefield, though Brown could likely do so just as well. Putting these two together in a platoon could work much better than some would expect, and it could certainly work for a year or two until we find a solution for the long-term.
What do I believe is the best solution? I think the best thing for the Sox would be to keep Bowden and forget about Saltalamacchia. Ramirez is not a solution behind the dish, and Teagarden is the guy I would like to have the most as our future backstop. But the Rangers feel the same way, and the cost to pry Teagarden from the Rangers is more than we are willing to pay. I would take Montero along in a deal including Byrnes, but would not give up a guy like Bowden OR Bard; Montero is not the solution. If we acquired Montero, I would hope the Sox would make him compete with Brown and Kottaras, as I honestly question whether he would be better than either of them (he does have the whole experience thing in his favor though). Johjima is a definite no-go. I think the best solution is to re-sign Varitek and pair him with Kottaras or Brown and let them share the duties.
Prediction: I think Varitek will re-sign with the Red Sox. He has absolutely no market; no team is willing to give a contract to an aging, offensively anemic catcher who will cost them a first-round draft pick. The Sox currently have a two year deal on the table to Tek, and it is probably at a significantly lower price than his previous deal that paid him $10 million per (think $6 million per or so). I think Kottaras ends up being the platoon mate with Tek for three reasons: 1. Tek has hit much better against LHP over the course of his career, and it really came out in his 2008 splits: vs. RHP, .201 - .293 - .323 - .616 (that is just sickening), striking out nearly 33% of the time; vs. LHP, .284 - .378 - .484 - .863 with a homerun in every five ABs. Kottaras hits much better off RHP than LHP, with Brown featuring splits similar to Varitek's. 2. Kottaras has handled the knuckleball before and could be Wakefield's primary catcher. 3. Kottaras is out of options and will either need to be released or held on the MLB club, and I think the latter is the most likely scenario.
With a Varitek-Kottaras platoon, I think a .260 - .360 - .460 - .820 line is plausible. It may be a bit optimistic, but anything even close to that would provide a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over the sub-.650 OPS that Sox catchers provided in 2008. Our defense would take a bit of a hit with Kottaras, but there is hope that he would be able to learn from Varitek and continue to develop defensively. I believe this is the perfect solution for the next two years to allow the Red Sox to figure out the siuation, whether it be through a trade, free agency (Joe Mauer in 2010), or from within (Luis Exposito, who had a tremendous first full-season in 2008 after missing nearly all of 2007 due to suspension. He has tremendous defensive tools to go along with some pretty good pop. Posted a .293 - .330 - .508 - .838 line between Greenville and Lancaster last season with 21 homers, 45 XBH, and an ugly 21:89 BB:K ratio in 417 ABs. We will hopefully have more clarity on Exposito's future following 2009).
Up next will be the #5 starter the Red Sox are looking for entering 2009.
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