State of the Sox: Catcher

With the pursuit of Mark Teixeira behind us, it is time for Red Sox Nation (and presumably the Red Sox FO) to focus on the holes in our lineup and filling out the rest of the roster. Despite losing out on big-name free agents (rather, losing out on Teixeira and not targeting other big-names), the Sox are still in a very good position and have plenty of money available to spend on... pretty much no one. The biggest question marks for the Sox are at catcher, starting pitching, fourth outfielder, and the bullpen (though that always seems to work itself out in the spring). I'll begin my "State of the Sox" series with the biggest current hole in the Sox lineup: catcher.

There are a myriad of possibilities to take over catching duties for the 2009 Red Sox. The most obvious solution would be the return of Jason Varitek, though the FO has entertained the possibility acquiring a young "catcher of the future." The problem with this is that the FO does not want to give up any respectable prospect, and any young, MLB-ready catcher with the "of the future" tag will not come cheap. Here are some of the potential solutions:

1. Jason Varitek. This is a no-brainer. Since being acquired for Heathcliff Slocumb years ago, Varitek has been a mainstay in the Sox lineup. He is the captain of the Sox and is the backbone of the club. There isn't a single catcher in the game who handles his pitching staff the way Varitek does. But Tek turns 37 in April and he just turned out his worst offensive season in his career: .220 - .313 - .359 - .672. As a die-hard Sox fan, I love Varitek and want him back. But I cannot advocate bringing him back as the full-time starter. I would love to have him back in a platoon, or to help teach the "tricks of the trade" to the new catcher we bring in, but he is such a huge hole in the lineup that his defense doesn't even come close to making up for it. I'm not sure that it would even be possible for Tek to post a line as bad as 2008, but he's clearly on the downside of his career and a sub-.700 OPS is what one would have to expect if he is the full-time catcher; as a big-market ballclub, that is unacceptable. The fortunate thing is that there is absolutely NO market for Tek because no team wants to give up the picks that a type A free agent requires. There is a chance the Mets sign Derek Lowe which would allow them to sign Varitek without having to give up picks, but I don't think the Mets would be able/willing to offer enough money to lure him out of Boston.

2. Ivan Rodriguez. I just don't see Pudge to the Sox happening. If we decide to bring in an old catcher on the decline, it's going to be Varitek. Pudge will probably demand the same or more money than Tek, and he just isn't a good fit for Boston. Tek knows the Boston pitching staff and he calls a game better than anyone. Even if he is not as good as Pudge offensively at this point, I would rather keep Tek in Boston than bring in someone entirely new who is on a similar decline. The only situation I can envision with Pudge ending up in a Sox uniform is if Tek signs somewhere else, which is beginning to seem unlikely.

3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Taylor Teagarden/Max Ramirez. This has been rumored since August. The Rangers were clogged at the catcher spot prior to moving Gerald Laird to Detroit. The Red Sox really like Teagarden and would be their top choice among the three because of his defensive ability and power potential. But now that the Rangers have moved Laird, it is rumored they prefer Teagarden for the short- and long-term because of the same reasons. It is unlikely Ramirez will be able to cut it defensively behind the dish; he will likely occupy the 1B/DH position. And as nice of a prospect as Salty is, he has huge holes in his swing and does not project to be strong enough defensively to make up for these holes. He may develop into an everyday catcher, but he is not the everyday solution we are currently looking for. The Rangers are looking for a top pitching prospect in return for Salty and the Sox have indicated that they will not be moving Buchholz, Bowden, or Masterson in a deal for him. It's unlikely the Rangers are going to move Teagarden at this point unless they are blown away (a.k.a. overpaid, something the Sox won't do), and Ramirez is not a fit at the catcher position.

4. Miguel Montero. It seems as though this is the deal that has gotten the most traction as of late. It was first rumored that the Sox offered Daniel Bard for Montero and got a counter-offer of Montero for Bowden; as mentioned above, the Sox are not looking to move any of their "Big Three" pitching prospects. The other scenario that has been mentioned is the Sox taking on the rest of Eric Byrnes' contract for the cash-strapped D'backs. Montero would be included with Byrnes, and the Sox would give up a lesser prospect. It would basically be a salary dump for the D'backs, who have little use for Montero with Chris Snyder establishing himself as the full-time catcher. I would take Montero on in a deal with Byrnes, as I think Byrnes would be a terrific fourth outfielder in Boston, but I would not give up Bowden for Montero. He simply has too many question marks. His offense is likely to be better than Tek's in 2008, with the potential to post an OPS in the mid-.700s, but that is nothing special for a guy who is average-to-below-average defensively. If we took him on in a Byrnes deal, I wouldn't mind pairing him up with Varitek for a year or two while we try and find a long-term solution behind the plate.

5. Kelly Shoppach. I really like the idea of bringing Shoppach back to Boston, but I just think he'll be too expensive. He is a good defensive catcher with a strong arm and good game-calling abilities. Is not a great hitter for average, but has above-average power for a catcher. The problem here is that the Indians have huge question marks at the C-1B-DH positions coming into the year. Victor Martinez is unlikely to be a full-time catcher - he'll likely spend a bulk of his time playing at 1B. Hafner is a huge question mark at the DH position, and it's likely Garko, Hafner, and VMart will split a lot of time at 1B-DH, with VMart being the back-up catcher when Shoppach needs a rest. Carlos Santana, the Indians top catching prospect (big-time offensive potential), isn't ready, so I do not see the Indians moving Shoppach any time soon.

6. Kenji Johjima. This has only been thrown out there as a potential fit, and the only way I see this happening is as a last-ditch move. I cannot see the Sox re-signing Tek and then bringing in Johjima. Johjima might be a decent option if we choose to promote from within (next section), but other than that, he just doesn't make any sense. The one thing he would be useful for is catching Tim Wakefield, but I don't think the Sox want to pay $5.2 million for Wakes' personal catcher when there's a good chance Dusty Brown could do just as well. The Red Sox do have plenty of available cash for the 2009 and 2010 season, but I doubt they would be willing to give up enough for the M's to just give Jeff Clement the starting gig.

7. Dusty Brown/George Kottaras. This has to be a worst-case scenario. If the Sox are unable to re-sign Tek and cannot put together a reasonable deal for any of the above catchers, it is likely the Sox will go into 2009 with a platoon of Dusty Brown and George Kottaras. As terrible as it sounds, I don't know if it would be much worse than what we had in 2008 - at least offensively. If used correctly, I could see these two combining for a .725-.775 OPS. Kottaras has pretty good power, solid on-base skills (though he Ks a lot), and is much better against righties than lefties; unfortunately, his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he would likely be considered a liability behind the dish. Brown, on the other hand, is an excellent defensive catcher - he really does everything above average. He has a fairly decent bat, especially against lefties, and has good patience at the dish. Kottaras would likely handle Wakefield, though Brown could likely do so just as well. Putting these two together in a platoon could work much better than some would expect, and it could certainly work for a year or two until we find a solution for the long-term.

What do I believe is the best solution? I think the best thing for the Sox would be to keep Bowden and forget about Saltalamacchia. Ramirez is not a solution behind the dish, and Teagarden is the guy I would like to have the most as our future backstop. But the Rangers feel the same way, and the cost to pry Teagarden from the Rangers is more than we are willing to pay. I would take Montero along in a deal including Byrnes, but would not give up a guy like Bowden OR Bard; Montero is not the solution. If we acquired Montero, I would hope the Sox would make him compete with Brown and Kottaras, as I honestly question whether he would be better than either of them (he does have the whole experience thing in his favor though). Johjima is a definite no-go. I think the best solution is to re-sign Varitek and pair him with Kottaras or Brown and let them share the duties.

Prediction: I think Varitek will re-sign with the Red Sox. He has absolutely no market; no team is willing to give a contract to an aging, offensively anemic catcher who will cost them a first-round draft pick. The Sox currently have a two year deal on the table to Tek, and it is probably at a significantly lower price than his previous deal that paid him $10 million per (think $6 million per or so). I think Kottaras ends up being the platoon mate with Tek for three reasons: 1. Tek has hit much better against LHP over the course of his career, and it really came out in his 2008 splits: vs. RHP, .201 - .293 - .323 - .616 (that is just sickening), striking out nearly 33% of the time; vs. LHP, .284 - .378 - .484 - .863 with a homerun in every five ABs. Kottaras hits much better off RHP than LHP, with Brown featuring splits similar to Varitek's. 2. Kottaras has handled the knuckleball before and could be Wakefield's primary catcher. 3. Kottaras is out of options and will either need to be released or held on the MLB club, and I think the latter is the most likely scenario.

With a Varitek-Kottaras platoon, I think a .260 - .360 - .460 - .820 line is plausible. It may be a bit optimistic, but anything even close to that would provide a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over the sub-.650 OPS that Sox catchers provided in 2008. Our defense would take a bit of a hit with Kottaras, but there is hope that he would be able to learn from Varitek and continue to develop defensively. I believe this is the perfect solution for the next two years to allow the Red Sox to figure out the siuation, whether it be through a trade, free agency (Joe Mauer in 2010), or from within (Luis Exposito, who had a tremendous first full-season in 2008 after missing nearly all of 2007 due to suspension. He has tremendous defensive tools to go along with some pretty good pop. Posted a .293 - .330 - .508 - .838 line between Greenville and Lancaster last season with 21 homers, 45 XBH, and an ugly 21:89 BB:K ratio in 417 ABs. We will hopefully have more clarity on Exposito's future following 2009).

Up next will be the #5 starter the Red Sox are looking for entering 2009.

The Baseball Academy of ... MUMBAI!?

The Pittsburgh Pirates finally made a splash in free agency this offseason, acquiring star lefthander Rinku Singh and flame-throwing righthander Dinesh Kumar Patel. What, you've never heard of them? That's because they're stars in India. Sort of.

For those who have yet to hear or read about this, Singh and Patel were the winners of a show called The Million Dollar Arm. Some brilliant mind came up with the thought that there must be SOME baseball talent in the second-largest country in the world. It's generally believed that throwing in the mid-to-high 90s is something you must be born with - it's not something you can be taught. So in a country of 1.1 billion, some of those blazin' fastball genes must have been distributed. The creators of the show ended up with Rinku Singh, a 6'2" lefty who won the contest with an 87 MPH fastball, and Dinesh Kumar Patel, a stocky righty who topped out at 85. Neither of the two knew a thing about baseball; the closest they had come to throwing a baseball was throwing the javelin. That says more than enough about what the creators were working with.

Rinku and Dinesh were flown to SoCal to train with USC pitching coach Tom House. Not a bad gig. I should have flown out to India for this thing. As a former college player, I could have hit 87 at least and got to live the life - Southern California, playing at Dedeaux Field (one of the finest facilities in the country), being on the baseball field all day, relaxing on the beaches on the weekends, hanging out with Hollywood's finest women (maybe not that part) ... The life. And these guys didn't even take advantage of it ... Sorry, I got a bit off track there.

Anyway, these kids trained with House for six months and got to audition for Major League clubs. During their training, the little righty hit 95 MPH - not too shabby for a kid who had never even seen a baseball just a few months prior. Both ended up signing with the desperate Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that refuses to spend money. And even if they had the money, they wouldn't have a chance in hell at landing a premier free agent because their organization flat-out SUCKS.

I am really hoping for these kids to succeed. And to succeed, we aren't asking for either of these kids to turn into the next Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez; they don't even have to become a significant contributor for a Major League club. If they can just last in the Minors for a few years and develop into a respectable prospect, that would be success. If Rinku Singh can come out of the bullpen in 2014 as a loogy, that would be success. If Singh and Patel can show that talent can be found in India, we could be looking at a new prospect hot bed. Sure, it will take some time to introduce the game and get places up-and-running, but teams will see the development opportunities and open academies just as they have in China and the Dominican. What these two kids have done already is remarkable, but if they can just do a little more, I think they will really be able to open India up as a place of baseball talent. It begins with the idea of baseball getting around. Watching games on the internet, throwing around the cricket ball rather than bouncing it, playing catch - and it slowly develops. Rinku and Dinesh have provided an entirely new opportunity for kids in India, and I do not doubt that baseball will begin to grow in popularity among the nation's youth. If Rinku and Dinesh were able to land professional baseball contracts in a little over six months of exposure to the game, imagine what some of these kids could do if they are exposed from the age of four or five?

What I do question is the ability of these Indian kids to survive the culture shock. Just by reading through the blog and watching the videos of Rinku and Dinesh, you can tell that the move from India to L.A. was not an easy one. The culture is so, so, so different. I won't even begin to try and describe the potential issues, as I'm not educated well-enough in Indian culture, but based on some of the comments that the two made in their blog, I was amazed they had lasted this long. Here's a quote from Rinku's July 4th blog entry: "Also got to see some disturbing scenes. Teenagers taking to booze and smoke. I was enraged at their parents for either neglecting them or not giving them the right upbringing. I had to ignore them to get back to the joyous ambiance." I mean... if that was disturbing and enraging, imagine what it will be like playing in the Minors with a team full of 18, 19, and 20 year olds who booze every night? Or engaging in conversation about girls? I can imagine what that would be like. By no means am I judging the Indian culture, I am simply saying that it is far different here in America and it may be a culture that is difficult for an Indian player to surround himself in.

Regardless, I do believe this is a great opportunity for both Rinku and Dinesh and for the game of baseball in India. Both pitchers have repeatedly cited a desire to one day return home and open a Baseball Center in India. Baseball gave them an opportunity to make a better life for themselves, and wishing to give that same opportunity to other kids in India is step 1. But if either has enough success to eventually open an Academy in India, it's unlikely that it will be the first - some other organization will have beat them to it.

"The name's Boras. Scott Boras."

As a fan of baseball, I hate Scott Boras. He is "The Baseball Anti-Christ." But to be fair, this guy is damn good at his job. I mean... he is a sports super-agent. We should probably call him Agent Octuple-Oh-Seven (000000007); an "oh"for the amount of zeros that are generally found in his clients' contracts. Like Bond, Boras is not a negotiator; he's an enforcer. Arguably the most powerful man in baseball, the presence of Boras scares off most owner's and GM's; the only ones willing to play ball are those with a near-infinite source of cash (see Yankees, New York, and Red Sox, Boston).

Let's take a look at what makes Boras so hated (and, conversely, so good). Boras has always been known for the ability to get his client's more money than they were considered to be worth. He etched his name in the record books in 2000 when he earned Alex Rodriguez a 10 year, $252 million deal; the largest, by far, in baseball history. Even more interesting was the sequence of events that went on last offseason after Rodriguez put up one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory. With just three years and $75 million remaining on his contract, and an opt-out available, Boras advised ARod to opt out because he was confident he could fetch a shiny, new $300 million contract. At the time, it certainly seemed plausible. Unfortunately for Boras and Rodriguez, the events that unfolded were embarrassing and detrimental to their relationship - but it didn't stop Rodriguez from signing another 10 year deal, this time worth $275 million (Boras didn't quite live up to expectations). Though it was far from Boras' finest moment, he had just negotiated the most lucrative contract in sports history for Rodriguez through his age 42 season.

In 2006, Boras had a 28-year old three-time All-Star (with a Cy Young sitting on his mantel) by the name of Barry Zito. Using Zito's excellent credentials, Boras touted him as the next Sandy Koufax. As good as Zito had been, there are few people that could have effectively made that argument to a Major League GM; fortunately for Barry, one of those few people happened to be Scott Boras. And Boras sold the West Coast surfer dude just as you would expect (and probably know): flawlessly. Brian Sabean bought the bullshit and gave Zito a 7 year, $126 million contract, making him the richest pitcher in baseball history. (As a quick aside, does Brian Sabean even count as a Major League GM? Maybe I'll write about this at some other time, but there had to have been someone in that organization telling him that Zito was NOT worth $126 million. Not only did this deal blow up in Sabean's face, but it royally fucked the rest of the league. Now, when Johan negotiates his contract extension and C.C. is looking for a new home, all they have to say is, "Barry Zito makes $16 million per." Once that sentence is uttered, there is a mutual understanding between team and player and the offer is automatically bumped up to $20 million annually - and then negotiations begin. Thanks for setting the market, Brian.)

To be fair to Sabean and the Giants, no one expected Zito to be the bust he has been, especially in the anemic NL West. I thought he was a #3 starter that could pass as a #2 in San Francisco; probably worth 4-5 years and $13-14 million per. But Boras sold him like a top five pitcher in baseball, and he got paid accordingly. All it takes is one idiot, and Boras found him, ate him up, and spit out straight cash.

Hell... Take a look at Mark Teixeira. It's been stated that New York was his desired destination this whole time, but they just didn't have the funds ... just kidding ... the intention to throw $175+ million at him. I am not going to say that Boras negotiated flawlessly here, because I don't believe he expected the Yankees to jump in at the last minute. He bluffed in Texas with the Sox, and John Henry called his bluff. Boras was going to have to take the 8 years, $168 million without an opt-out or NTC, but because he played out his bluff for as long as possible, he got what he was looking for. I liken what happened with Tex to that scene in Casino Royale when Bond loses that first hand to Le Chiffre, but discovers his tell. Le Chiffre (Boras) was bluffing; Bond (Sox FO) knew he was bluffing; but Le Chiffre stood strong on the bluff and caught the straight (the Yankees offer) on the river (the last minute). When you're as good as Boras, some luck has to be involved.

Boras even runs the amateur draft. Rick Porcello dropped from a top five pick, where all the small-market clubs were drafting, to 27th overall. The most talented RHP in the draft fell to 27th because teams were simply AFRAID of what Boras would demand. In this year's draft, the Pirates actually ponied up and were willing to pay #2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez. Boras negotiated until the deadline and landed Alvarez a deal that would pay him a $6 million bonus - significantly above the slot "suggestion" (what the hell is this slot suggestion, by the way?). But because Alvarez was not able to sign the papers, Boras used this as an opportunity to deny an agreement had been reached by the deadline. To make a long story short, Boras caused a big stink and ended up getting a deal worth... get this... $355,000 more. Just so he could say Alvarez was the highest paid player in the draft.

From a guy who has a desire to be the best at he does, I respect Scott Boras. I may hate the man, but I respect him because he is the best sports agent on the planet. As an aspiring FO executive, he is someone that I would never want to deal with. For an aspiring sports agent, this is a guy to emulate. To Agent 000000007: You are a terrific, terrible person.

$450.4 Million Later: The New York Yankees Story

It's been quite an expensive past couple of weeks for America's favorite team. It began with the $161 million signing of ace C.C. Sabathia, ending a process which had the Yankees bidding against none other than themselves (side note: could any professional sports team BUT the Yankees achieve something so impossible?). They followed the signing of the 300 pound lefty with an $82.5 million acquisition of A.J. Burnett. Not shocking, as it was expected that the Yankees would shore up a depleted rotation by dropping a ridiculous amount of money, because hey, they have mastered the "you have to spend money to make money" mantra. On Monday, Bud Selig wished his favorite co-owners a "Merry Christmas" by sending them a bill for nearly $27 million; apparently, that's what you have to pay if your payroll is $222 million. "That'll keep those MF'ers from spending anymore money," Bud Selig must have been thinking. And, as we all know, the Steinbrenners responded with a big one-fingered-salute to the Commissioner, throwing $180 million at the last minute to Mark Teixeira, a Gold Glove 1B who significantly improves both the infield defense and the middle of the order for those damn Yankees.

Baseball fans, specifically Red Sox fans, responded to this last signing with shock, disbelief, outrage; "HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN!? Salary cap, salary cap, salary cap! The Yankees just bought a championship! WTF!?" As a Sox fan, I can admit to feeling a bit angry when I first heard the news. I never thought Teixeira was really a necessity for the Sox, but he was a luxury that would improve our team by about three-four wins, which could end up being the difference between the playing in the playoffs or golfing in October. Nevertheless, I got over this news quickly and went to check out the "chatter." As expected, Sox and Yankees fans were going at it like it was 2003. I found the back-and-forth nature to be rather amusing, but I particularly enjoyed this most common excuse from Yankees fans: We just dumped the contracts of Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Pudge, etc. and are STILL $20 million below our 2008 salary with the inclusion of Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira. I may have found this amusing because I'm a Sox fan and inherently find Yankee fans to be clowns, but because I'm generally an objective Boston fan, I'm guessing I found this excuse to be absolutely absurd because the Yankees put themselves on the hook for $450 million over the past two weeks. That is a 45 followed by 7 zeros. Why is this so mind-blowing?

1. The Yankees now have four of the highest paid players in baseball: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, C.C., and Teix. It would be one thing if these four guys were top five players, but the only guy who falls there is ARod. Jeter isn't even top five at his position, Teix is probably top ten, and C.C. is a guy who earned an extra $7 million per year because he dominated the weak NL Central for two months. Um, did anyone happen to realize that he is not going to dominate the AL East like he did the NL Central? The Yankees will be lucky if he can post numbers similar to Sabathia's 2007 in the best division in baseball, but I can't say that's terribly likely. He is not the best pitcher in baseball and should not be paid accordingly. Plus, do you really want to be paying a 300 pound power pitcher into his age 35 season? As great as the David Wells comparison *seems* to be, it's not a good one; Wells was a paint-the-black, induce contact pitcher, and C.C. relies on a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a hard, biting slider. Aging generally doesn't do good things for power pitchers; certainly not for power pitchers who have serious weight problems.

2. In one of, if not the worst economic situation in this country's history, the Yankees are currently committed to four players five seasons from now (2013): Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett. And they're on the hook for $90 million. Even worse: in seven seasons, they're on the hook for three players for $76.5 million. Add to the fact that they'll likely renew Jeter for another few years when his contract ends in 2010 and you can see that there is going to be a LOT of money tied up in these guys. After pissing and moaning about being stuck under Mussina's, Giambi's, and Pavano's fat contracts for the past few years, you would think the Yankees would be leary about engaging in massive, long-term deals. Guess not.

3. As a future resident of New York City (T-minus six months), this one bothers me the most. Over the past two offseasons, the Yankees have committed $700 million in player's salaries and been billed for nearly $60 million in luxury taxes. This all comes in lieu of a brand new, $1.3 billion SELF-FINANCED stadium. The Yankees won't go without, however; this new $1.3 billion home is basically being financed by the taxpayers of New York City! I do not understand how the Yankees, one of the richest organizations in baseball, could beg New York City for funding and then follow that up by committing $760 million over thirteen months. People will argue that the city of New York is allowing this because the Yankees are taking the money they are saving and spending it on free agents to field a better team, but, uh, what does that do for the City? The Yankees are going to sell-out, sell jerseys, attract fans, and make money (YES!) whether they have to fund their stadium or not; the City will receive their taxes from that revenue regardless. NYC is funding the parking garages and parkland on the waterfront, taxpayer money will go directly to the new stop on the MetroNorth, and the City is allowing the Yankees to issue muni-bonds to the public to help fund the Yankees' side of deal. Not only will the City forego the tax revenue that would be generated from the interest earned by the bond purchasers, but it will cost the Yankees less money than a standard corporate bond because they will have to pay less interest to bondholders due to the tax-exemption. The City has also worked with the Yankees to allow them to classify the Stadium as an "operating lease," which will allow the Yankees to keep more and share less with the rest of the MLB. In the end, taxpayers will end up footing half of the bill during the deepest economic recession in over 75 years. Oh, and the Yankees have thrown around nearly the ENTIRE cost of the stadium in just thirteen months. That is perfectly acceptable.

My rant is over. I do not have an issue with the Yankees throwing around the money that they do have, I just think it is ridiculous to be doing in this current economic environment. And I hate Yankee fans acting like their beloved team just cut salary - are you serious?